What a megawatt-hour of solar is actually worth
As more solar floods the same midday hours, each one earns less. The capture price is the average price solar actually receives, generation-weighted. Divided by the baseload price, that's the value factor — and it's falling.
A megawatt-hour of German solar earns less than the average price, because solar is worth least exactly when there is most of it. Over the last 12 months, its capture value factor was 0.55 — it earned 55% of the baseload price.
That is a decline driven by solar's own growth: the value factor was 0.78 in 2021 and 0.52 in 2025.
In the rolling window, 22% of all solar generation happened in hours when the price was below zero.
Questions
What is the solar capture rate in Germany?
Over the last 12 months the German solar value factor was 0.55 — a megawatt-hour of solar earned 55% of the baseload price. It has fallen from 0.78 in 2021 to 0.52 in 2025 as solar has grown.
The monthly line above is the trailing window; this is the long trend. Each point is a full calendar year — solar's value factor has fallen as capacity has piled into the same midday hours. (2022 is the gas-crisis outlier, when every hour was expensive.)