01When does power move?

What a megawatt-hour of solar or wind is worth

How much does a megawatt-hour of solar or wind earn, when so many plants generate in the same hours?

A megawatt-hour of German solar earns less than the average price, because solar is worth least when there is most of it. Over the 12 months to October 2026, its value factor was 0.57: it earned 57% of the baseload price, the plain average over every hour.

The value factor has fallen as solar has grown: 0.78 in 2021 and 0.52 in 2025.

Over the same period, 21% of all solar generation came in hours when the price was below zero.

The value factor, falling
Solar Wind Value factor = 1.0
The capture price is the average price a fuel's output earns, weighted by when it generates; the value factor is the capture price divided by the baseload price, the plain average over every hour. Monthly. Generation and price are averaged to hourly before weighting, because Germany moved to quarter-hour prices in October 2025.
Year by year, the decline
value factor · per calendar year

The monthly line above shows the recent window; this chart is the long trend. Each point is a full calendar year. Solar's value factor has fallen as capacity has piled into the same midday hours. (2022 is the gas-crisis outlier, when every hour was expensive.) The bars behind the lines are the solar and wind fleet at each year's end, in gigawatts.

Solar Wind Value factor = 1.0 Solar GW, year-end Wind GW, year-end
Value factor (capture price ÷ baseload price) for each complete calendar year; the current year is still in progress and is left out. Source: ENTSO-E generation and day-ahead prices.
Capture price and baseload price, by zone
€/MWh
Solar capture Wind capture Baseload
The capture price weights each hour's price by that fuel's generation; the baseload price is the plain average over every hour. Negative prices count in full. €/MWh.
The share sold below zero
Share of solar generation produced in negative-price hours, %.
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Questions

What is the solar capture rate in Germany?

Over the 12 months to October 2026, the German solar value factor was 0.57: a megawatt-hour of solar earned 57% of the baseload price, the plain average over every hour. It has fallen from 0.78 in 2021 to 0.52 in 2025 as solar has grown.

How these numbers are made: The canonical hourly grid, Capture price and value factor.

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More in “The Daily Rhythm”
HistoryEvery day's price spread across several years, with its seasonal shape and its trend.Price VolatilityHow much the wholesale price swings each month in six bidding zones since 2021, and what moved with it.PulsePrices dip at midday when solar output peaks and rise after dark. Traders call the shape the duck curve.SpreadThe daily gap between the cheapest and dearest hour, which a battery earns its living from.