The 2035 Question

Brussels reopened the combustion phase-out. What the proposal says, and what competing analyses estimate it would change — cited, with no verdict.

In December 2025 the European Commission proposed softening the 2035 new-car target from a 100% to a 90% CO₂ reduction — the remaining 10% creditable via low-carbon steel, e-fuels and biofuels — alongside 2030-2032 compliance averaging for carmakers and a weaker van target.

What that would change is contested, so Wattlas cites the ranges rather than picking one: T&E estimates the proposal cuts the 2035 battery-electric share of new cars to about 85% (a range of 50–95%) and estimates roughly 720 Mt additional CO2 to 2050; the ICCT estimates the 2030 share falls from 61% under current rules to 44%.

Parliament and Council negotiating through H1 2026; the rapporteur's April 2026 draft proposed further weakening. Not final.

A live legislative negotiation — cited positions and competing estimates, not a verdict.

Competing estimates of the battery-electric share
all projections — outlined and dashed, because none of this is measured
The proposal, as filed
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