06What's plugging into the grid?

Electric cars in Germany: the fleet today and the projections for 2030

How many electric cars will be on German roads by 2030, and what does EU law ask of new cars from 2035?

At the end of 2025, 2.03 million battery-electric cars were registered in Germany, according to Eurostat.

For 2030, the Umweltbundesamt's 2026 projection expects 7.0 million in its scenario with existing measures (MMS); Agora Verkehrswende's scenarios from October 2024 range from 8.9 million to about 15 million.

From 2035, EU law requires new cars to emit no CO₂ at the tailpipe (a 100% cut); a European Commission proposal of 16 December 2025 would make it 90%, and it is not yet law.

Each projection is one scenario from one edition, shown beside the others. The 2021 coalition goal, shown for reference, was a political aim with no legal force.

Battery-electric cars on German roads, in millions
Stock of registered cars. Plug-in hybrids are not counted.

The EU rule for new cars from 2035
The fleet so far
Where each figure comes from
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    Why the projections are shown side by side

    Every number after the last measured year is a scenario, and a scenario is an argument: someone's estimate of what happens under a stated set of assumptions about prices, policy and buyer behaviour. The federal environment agency's projection models the effect of measures already in force. Agora Verkehrswende, a policy think tank, publishes a set of paths towards a climate target, so its figures answer what would have to happen for the target to be met. A 2021 coalition agreement named a figure as a political goal, and it was never written into law.

    Each is shown with its publisher, its scenario name and the edition it came from, and none is averaged with another. Averaging would produce a number that nobody published and that no set of assumptions supports, and it would hide the spread, which is the most informative thing here: the distance between the paths is the distance between the policies behind them.

    The measured line is the fleet: battery-electric cars registered in Germany, counted at the end of each year. Plug-in hybrids are left out, because they have a combustion engine and their electric share of driving is uncertain. Read the measured line against the projections for its slope as much as its level. The fleet turns over slowly, so the 2030 figure depends mostly on what is bought in the years just before it.

    The EU rule is a separate matter and often confused with the fleet. From 2035, EU law requires the average new car sold to emit no CO₂ at the tailpipe, which is a rule about new sales, leaving every car already on the road untouched. In December 2025 the European Commission proposed softening that requirement, and a proposal becomes law only once the Parliament and the Council agree it. Both the rule and the proposal are shown here with their dates, so a reader can see which is in force today.

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